On November 3rd Merrimack Valley Planning Commission hosted The State of the Economy in Massachusetts and the Merrimack Valley in partnership with the UMass Amherst Donahue Institute and Merrimack Valley Regional Transit Authority. The event was a high-level overview of where the economy stands in Massachusetts after a volatile 18 months and where we stand as a regional economy. Over 35 people from across the Merrimack Valley were in attendance. Attendees are part of the Merrimack Valley Economic Development Coalition charged with crafting and implementing the Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS). To join this coalition please send an email to Nate Robertson at [email protected] to learn more about MVPC’s Community and Economic Development Program page.

Dr. Mark Melnik, Director of Economic & Public Policy Research at the UMass Amherst Donahue Institute presented data on Massachusetts Economic Growth and Challenges in the Age of COVID-19. Some takeaways include:

• • Massachusetts business confidence has returned to pre-pandemic levels
  • The pace of state growth has slowed
  • The labor force has begun to rebound
  • Population growth remains the strongest in the Northeast at 5.3% over ten years
    • Population growth depends on international migration, which has plummeted since 2017
  • Massachusetts is experiencing historic job openings
  • Massachusetts had historic “job quits rates” in August
  • Merrimack Valley remains a major employment hub
    • 92k people are employed and live in the Merrimack Valley
    • 68k people are employers in the MV and live outside of it
    • 53k people live in the MV and are employed outside of it

Noah Berger, Administrator of the Merrimack Valley Transit Authority presented data on MVRTA’s ridership rates, trip counts, and vision for the future of transit in the Merrimack Valley. Some takeaways include:

• • • MVRTA is 15% below the required staffing levels (they are hiring!)
    • MVRTA ridership is 61% of its 2020 equivalent
    • Ridership is improving and is 36% higher than its early 2021 levels
    • Changing travel patterns include:
      • Lower commuting into Boston and niche services
      • Higher trip chaining, discretionary trips, and free fare service ridership
    • Future vision includes:
      • More inviting busses with new exterior design
      • More physical bus stops
      • Exploring expanded free fare service

  Nate Robertson, Community and Economic Development Program Manager at the Merrimack Valley Planning Commission presented data on the commercial real estate market in the Merrimack Valley. Some key takeaways include:

  • • In aggregate, the Merrimack Valley continues to experience historically low vacancy
    • Retail vacancies remain low in the downtowns and city centers of Lawrence, Haverhill, Methuen, Andover, North Andover, Newburyport, Amesbury, and Georgetown. As consumer retail behavior continues to change, downtowns have proven resilient
    • Retail vacancies continue to climb in strip malls, big box stores, and other non-downtown retail markets
    • Market rent has continued to trend down in all markets, except for the industrial market which has remained steady. Retail rents have collapsed the most and currently sit at 2012 levels
    • Property sales and property lease rates remain historically strong
    • Construction starts were impacted significantly in 2020 but have recovered in 2021

  You can view the slides here or click here to listen to the talk (starts 10 minutes in).